Transnational Repression

Is South Africa Turning a Blind Eye?

Transnational Repression and the Shadow War Against Zimbabwean Dissent

The assassination of 26-year-old activist Kudzai Weston Saruwaka in Pretoria on February 7, 2026—just one day after the death of opposition figure Blessing Geza—has thrust an uncomfortable question into South Africa's political consciousness: Has the Rainbow Nation become a hunting ground for foreign regimes seeking to silence their critics?

Saruwaka's killing, the suspicious arrest of opposition leader Job Sikhala with planted explosives, and the prolonged detention of Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) leader Jameson Timba paint a disturbing picture of systematic transnational repression operating with apparent impunity on South African soil. The evidence suggests that while Pretoria may not be actively orchestrating these acts, it is creating conditions where such operations can flourish—through institutional weakness, political calculations, and what amounts to willful blindness.

The Saruwaka Assassination: A Professional Hit on South African Soil

Kudzai Weston Saruwaka was not a high-profile politician. He was a young activist who had supported Blessing Geza's calls for political change in Zimbabwe. That support cost him his life. On February 7, 2026, Saruwaka was found dead with gunshot wounds in Mabopane, Pretoria.

The circumstances bear all the hallmarks of an extraterritorial assassination:

• *The Setup*: Saruwaka, who ran a small business, was allegedly lured by a client who placed a R27,000 order, paid in installments. The final payment required him to travel to a remote location in Mabopane.
• *The Execution*: When Saruwaka arrived at the location, gunmen ambushed his vehicle. Both he and his Uber driver were shot dead.
• *The Signature*: Nothing was stolen—not the merchandise, not cash, nothing. Family members emphasize this point: "nothing, including the merchandise, was stolen," raising immediate suspicions that he was deliberately targeted and lured to the location for assassination.
• *The Timing*: Saruwaka was killed exactly one day after Blessing Geza's death from cancer in South Africa. The proximity is either an extraordinary coincidence or a calculated message.
• *The Context*: Saruwaka had fled Zimbabwe in October 2025 after receiving credible threats linked to his activism. He sought safety in South Africa. That safety proved illusory.

Opposition leader Douglas Mwonzora described Saruwaka as "one of the most gifted, fearless and focused young people" and called his death "murder most foul." Former MP Gladys Hlatywayo was more direct: the killing bore "the footprints of an extraterritorial assassination."

Zimbabwe's government spokesperson categorically denied involvement, attributing the death to South Africa's high violent crime rate. This deflection is convenient but unconvincing. Professional assassinations with specific targeting, elaborate lures, and no robbery are not the modus operandi of common criminals.

The Sikhala Frame-Up: Explosives and Manufactured Terror Charges

If Saruwaka's case represents the lethal end of transnational repression, Job Sikhala's November 2025 arrest in Pretoria represents its criminalization strategy—neutralizing dissidents through South African law enforcement. On November 6, 2025, Sikhala and his 78-year-old uncle Alexander Thema were stopped by South African police on the N14 highway outside Johannesburg. Police, acting on a "tip-off" about a Ford Fiesta transporting explosives, searched the vehicle and allegedly found 26 blasting cartridges and 15 capped fuse connectors.

Sikhala, a former Member of Parliament and vocal critic of President Mnangagwa's unconstitutional term extension bid, immediately claimed the explosives were planted. His wife provided critical testimony: at an event the night before the arrest, Sikhala's car keys were taken by one of the hosts to "check something" for 30 minutes. The host then wrapped up the event, and Sikhala was arrested shortly after leaving.

The timing and context are damning:

• *Political motivation*: Sikhala had spent 595 days in pre-trial detention in Zimbabwe on politically motivated charges before being released in January 2024. He was in South Africa seeking medical treatment following his prolonged incarceration.
• *Pattern of harassment*: Just weeks before his arrest, there were bombings in Harare targeting venues associated with activists opposing Mnangagwa's 2030 term extension plan. NDWG spokesperson Isaya Ndawana described Sikhala's arrest as "a planned thing" intended to link him to these bombings.
• *Absurdity of the accusation*: As ACTSA Director Tricia Sibbons noted, "Job Sikhala, a peaceful democracy champion with over two decades of non-violent fight against Zanu-PF" being caught with commercial explosives defies credibility. The NDWG put it bluntly: "We cannot rule out power play because Honourable Sikhala cannot be such a foolish man to carry a load of explosives knowingly."
• *The South African connection*: The operation required tip-offs to South African police, suggesting either cooperation from or infiltration of South African security services. Either scenario is deeply troubling.

Sikhala was granted R10,000 bail in November 2025, with the case postponed to May 2026 pending DNA and fingerprint evidence. As of early February 2026, prosecutors are still awaiting this evidence—suggesting the case may be collapsing under scrutiny. But the damage is done: Sikhala has been criminalized, his movements restricted, and his activism constrained.

The Timba Persecution: When Commemorating Children Becomes "Terrorism"

The transnational repression against Zimbabwean activists isn't limited to violence and frame-ups in South Africa. It extends to creating conditions in Zimbabwe that force activists into exile—where they then become vulnerable. Jameson Timba's case illustrates this dynamic. On June 16, 2024, police raided Timba's home in Harare where he and 77 others had gathered to commemorate the International Day of the African Child. They were arrested and charged with "gathering with intent to promote public violence and disorderly conduct."

The arrests were part of a systematic crackdown ahead of the August 2024 Southern African Development Community (SADC) Summit in Harare, during which over 160 opposition activists were detained. Amnesty International documented that some detainees were tortured while in police custody.

Timba and 34 activists spent over 164 days in pre-trial detention before being convicted of unlawful assembly on November 23, 2024, and sentenced to suspended prison terms on November 27, 2024. Amnesty International called it "a gross miscarriage of justice and a stark reminder of the Zimbabwean authorities' failure to uphold human rights."

The significance? This systematic persecution creates refugee flows. Activists like Saruwaka flee to South Africa seeking safety. Once there, they become targets in a permissive environment where South African authorities lack the capacity—or will—to protect them.

The Structural Enablers: How South Africa Facilitates Transnational Repression

South Africa's role in these cases is not one of active collaboration with the Zimbabwean regime. Rather, it is one of institutional failure, political calculation, and regulatory frameworks that inadvertently enable foreign states to hunt their dissidents.

1. Endemic Corruption in Policing

Freedom House research has documented that corruption is endemic in South African policing, which can expose vulnerable individuals to greater risk. The evidence is stark: in recordings concerning a plot by Swazi government officials to assassinate exiled journalist Zweli Martin Dlamini, Swazi General Jeffrey Shabalala seemed to suggest the government would bribe or compensate South African intelligence agents who shared Dlamini's location.

If foreign intelligence services believe they can buy information from South African security personnel about exile locations, then no Zimbabwean dissident is safe. The "tip-off" that led to Sikhala's arrest raises immediate questions: who provided it, and why?

2. Regulations That Criminalize Diaspora Activism

In a cruel irony, South Africa—itself the product of a liberation struggle supported by exiles worldwide—now criminalizes the very activism that brought it freedom. New regulations that came into force in 2020 effectively outlaw diaspora activism by allowing refugees to lose their status for participating in any political campaign or activity related to their country of origin without ministerial permission.

This means Zimbabwean activists in South Africa face a catch-22: engage in political activism and risk deportation to the regime they fled, or remain silent and abandon the struggle. Either way, the repression wins.

3. "Quiet Diplomacy" and Liberation Movement Solidarity

Political scientist Blessing-Miles Tendi notes that liberation movement solidarity binds ZANU-PF and the ANC together by the conviction that they are the embodiments of the logic of history. This "quiet diplomacy" approach has historically meant South Africa avoids confronting Zimbabwe's human rights abuses.

The consequences are tangible: when Zimbabwean activists are killed or framed on South African soil, Pretoria's response is muted. Police open investigations that go nowhere. Press releases express concern but promise no action. The diplomatic calculus favors regional relationships over individual lives.

 4. Institutional Incapacity

Freedom House's assessment is blunt: South African authorities largely lack the capacity to address transnational repression due to administrative problems, issues with policing, preoccupation with other domestic security issues, and conflicting foreign policy goals.

South Africa hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees and asylum seekers, largely from other African countries. The scale of the challenge is immense. But scale does not excuse failure. When professional assassinations occur on South African soil, when activists are arrested with planted evidence, when "tip-offs" appear to come from foreign intelligence services, the response cannot be bureaucratic shrugs.

The Historical Irony: From Sanctuary to Hunting Ground

The bitterest irony in this story is historical. During the apartheid era, South African security forces conducted extensive extraterritorial assassinations of African National Congress (ANC) members in neighboring countries. Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Lesotho, Swaziland—all became killing fields for apartheid hit squads hunting ANC cadres.

Post-apartheid South Africa was supposed to represent a break from this legacy. It was to be a sanctuary for those fleeing oppression, a beacon of human rights and constitutional democracy in a region plagued by authoritarianism. Instead, it has become what its neighbors once were: a place where foreign regimes can operate with relative impunity against their exiled critics. The hunter has become the hunting ground.

This transformation has not escaped notice. As Freedom House notes, claims that Zimbabwe may have carried out an extraterritorial killing will send a chill down the spines of dozens of President Mnangagwa's critics who have sought refuge in neighboring countries.

Is South Africa "Allowing" Transnational Repression?

The answer is complex and uncomfortable: South Africa is not actively orchestrating these operations, but it is creating conditions where they can occur through:

• *Permissive environment*: Weak institutional capacity, corruption in security services, and regulations that criminalize asylum seekers' political activism create a environment where foreign states can operate against exiles.
• *Political calculations*: "Quiet diplomacy" and liberation movement solidarity mean South Africa prioritizes regional relationships over protecting individual activists.
• *Investigative failures*: While police open investigations into cases like Saruwaka's killing, the track record of actually solving politically motivated crimes against foreign dissidents is dismal.
• *Denial of the problem*: By attributing politically motivated assassinations to "high crime rates" or treating planted-explosive cases as legitimate prosecutions, South African authorities avoid confronting the systematic nature of transnational repression.

The phrase "turning a blind eye" may be too generous. It implies South Africa sees what is happening but chooses not to act. The reality may be worse: South Africa has constructed a system where it doesn't have to see—where institutional incapacity, corruption, and political priorities combine to ensure that even the most obvious cases of transnational repression can be dismissed as coincidence, crime, or legitimate law enforcement.

What This Means for Zimbabwean Activists

For Zimbabwean activists in exile, the implications are terrifying:

• *South Africa is not safe.* The border that was supposed to provide sanctuary instead provides a false sense of security. Activists who fled Mnangagwa's regime in Harare find themselves hunted in Johannesburg, Pretoria, and Cape Town.
• *The methods are evolving.* From professional assassinations (Saruwaka) to planted evidence and arrest (Sikhala), the tactics of transnational repression are sophisticated and diverse.
• *South African law enforcement is compromised.* Whether through corruption (as the Swazi recordings suggest) or tip-offs from foreign intelligence, South African police are being used as instruments of foreign repression.
• *There is no accountability.* Investigations go nowhere. Diplomatic protests are muted. The bodies pile up, the frame-ups continue, and the system grinds on.
• *Activism has become existentially dangerous.* Even low-profile activists like Saruwaka, who simply supported calls for change, are being hunted down and killed. The message is clear: there is nowhere to hide, and no level of activism is safe.

The Path Forward: Breaking the Cycle

If South Africa is serious about ending its role as a theater for transnational repression, several urgent steps are necessary:

1. Acknowledge the Problem: Stop attributing politically motivated assassinations to "crime" and planted-evidence arrests to legitimate law enforcement. Call transnational repression what it is.
2. Investigate Corruption: Root out security service personnel who sell information to foreign intelligence agencies or facilitate operations against exiles.
3. Repeal Harmful Regulations: The 2020 regulations that criminalize diaspora activism must be repealed. Refugees have the right to advocate for change in their home countries.
4. Establish Protection Mechanisms: Create dedicated units to investigate suspected cases of transnational repression and protect at-risk activists.
5. Diplomatic Consequences: When evidence suggests foreign states are conducting operations on South African soil, there must be diplomatic consequences—not "quiet diplomacy" that amounts to complicity.
6. Regional Coordination: Work with SADC to establish norms against transnational repression and mechanisms for accountability.
7. Transparency: Publish data on investigations into politically motivated attacks on foreign dissidents. Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

Conclusion: The Test of South Africa's Soul

The cases of Kudzai Saruwaka, Job Sikhala, and Jameson Timba are not isolated incidents. They are symptoms of a systematic failure—one that transforms South Africa from a sanctuary for the oppressed into a hunting ground for authoritarians. Saruwaka's family buries a 26-year-old whose only crime was believing Zimbabwe could be better. Sikhala fights terrorism charges based on evidence that appears planted. Timba spent over 160 days in detention for commemorating children. And countless other activists watch, terrified, knowing they could be next.

South Africa faces a choice. It can continue down the path of institutional weakness, corruption, and political calculation that enables transnational repression. Or it can reclaim the moral authority it claims to embody—the authority of a nation that knows what it means to fight oppression, to live in exile, to fear the knock on the door in the night. The bodies of activists like Kudzai Saruwaka demand an answer. Will South Africa be their sanctuary or their grave?

The question is no longer whether transnational repression is occurring on South African soil. The evidence is overwhelming. The question is whether South Africa will finally open its eyes, acknowledge what is happening, and act to stop it.

For Zimbabwean activists in exile, their lives depend on the answer.

---Kudzai Weston Saruwaka (1999-2026) was killed in Pretoria on February 7, 2026. Job Sikhala awaits trial on explosives charges his lawyers say were planted. Jameson Timba was released in November 2024 after 164 days in detention for commemorating children. Their stories are not unique. They are the visible faces of a shadow war being waged against Zimbabwean dissent on South African soil—a war South Africa has the power to end, if it chooses to see it.